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著者: Okumura K, Tomita H, Nakai M, Kodani E, Akao M, Suzuki S, Hayashi K, Sawano M, Goya M, Yamashita T, Fukuda K, Ogawa H, Tsuda T, Isobe M, Toyoda K, Miyamoto Y, Miyata H, Okamura T, Sasahara Y; J-RISK AF Research Group.
雑誌名: Circ J. 2021 Jul 21;85(8):1254-1262. doi: 10.1253/circj.CJ-20-1075. Epub 2021 Mar 25.
Abstract/Text
BACKGROUND: Recently, identification of independent risk factors for ischemic stroke in Japanese non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients was made by analyzing the 5 major Japanese registries: J-RHYTHM Registry, Fushimi AF Registry, Shinken Database, Keio interhospital Cardiovascular Studies, and the Hokuriku-Plus AF Registry.Methods and Results:The predictive value of the risk scheme in Japanese NVAF patients was assessed. Of 16,918 patients, 12,289 NVAF patients were analyzed (mean follow up, 649±181 days). Hazard ratios (HRs) of each significant, independent risk factor were determined by using adjusted Cox-hazard proportional analysis. Scoring system for ischemic stroke was created by transforming HR logarithmically and was estimated by c-statistic. During the 21,820 person-years follow up, 241 ischemic stroke events occurred. Significant risk factors were: being elderly (aged 75-84 years [E], HR=1.74), extreme elderly (≥85 years [EE], HR=2.41), having hypertension (H, HR=1.60), previous stroke (S, HR=2.75), type of AF (persistent/permanent) (T, HR=1.59), and low body mass index <18.5 kg/m2(L, HR=1.55) after adjusting for oral anticoagulant treatment. The score was assigned as follows: 1 point to H, E, L, and T, and 2 points to EE and S (HELT-E2S2score). The C-statistic, using this score, was 0.681 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.647-0.714), which was significantly higher than those using CHADS2(0.647; 95% CI=0.614-0.681, P=0.027 for comparison) and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (0.641; 95% CI=0.608-0.673, P=0.008).
CONCLUSIONS: The HELT-E2S2score may be useful for identifying Japanese NVAF patients at risk of ischemic stroke.
PMID 33762526 Circ J. 2021 Jul 21;85(8):1254-1262. doi: 10.1253/circj.CJ-20-1075. Epub 2021 Mar 25.
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